El Nino May Not Be Behind November Snowfall, Experts Say

But a Warmer Winter Likely on the Way

By Soren Wuerth

TNews Editor

An unprecedented storm that hurled over three feet of snow across Turnagain Arm this past week occurred during an El Nino year, but it is unlikely a natural cycle of warming ocean water is responsible for that event, said Alaska Climate Specialist Rick Thoman.

Nevertheless, El Nino and global warming are having and will have impacts on our winters, scientists say.

"I've had a lot of questions in the last couple weeks, [such as] is this south central snow, the warmth and lack of sea ice in parts of western Alaska, is this tied to El Nino'. Thoman said in a videotaped briefing Friday.

Based on weather patterns during the first half of November, Thoman said El Nino is unlikely the culprit. “I don't often get to say this--we think, pretty darn confidently, that our unusual weather is not directly linked to El Nino," he said.

While there were other influences causing the storms, El Nino will likely create a warmer winter and spring in Alaska and "win out in the end" as a leading factor in weather systems, he said.

Heavy, wet snow that fell last week cut off power across Girdwood and parts of Anchorage, clogged local roadways, and even restricted, in some cases, cell service. On the Richardson Highway, around Mile 46, 72 inches of snow fell in a 20 hour period. 

With a warming climate and oceans, due to fossil fuel emissions and other pollution, Alaska can expect increasing precipitation in all seasons, especially during fall and winter, wrote climate scientist Jeremy Littell, of the US Geological Survey in Anchorage.

"Whether that future precipitation falls as snow or rain in a warming climate is one important question, and another is whether more of it falls in bigger events (for example, heavier precipitation for the same number of storms) or if it is more events/storms," Littell said in an email.

Projections show a short snow season with the coldest months, December through February, remaining cold enough for snow, Littell wrote. The winter’s "shoulder seasons" will see more rain.

Data from snow gauges at Alyeska, monitored by the federal Natural Resources Conservation Service, show declining snowfall since measurements began in 1977.

" ...Even the 2021 and 2022 [snow] values, which are relatively high compared to recent [amounts], are still about 10%-15% below the average from the mid 1970s to 2000," said Littell.

Autumn temperatures around Alaska and northwestern Canada were significantly above normal, according to data from the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy, where Thoman works.

"Overall, most of Alaska is warming and, if you look at the last 50 years, trending wetter," Thoman said in the briefing.

A cabin in Girdwood taken after the storm showing the amount of snowfall (Picture by David Nyman)

Climate outlooks are not the same as weather forecasts because climate takes into consideration longterm trends and is comprised of categories for temperatures and precipitation above and below normal. 

Thoman, in the climate outlook webinar, said recent data on ocean temperatures show "textbook" El Nino. "We have officially reached the strong El Nino category," he said.

El Nino influences Alaska weather when tropical thunderstorms hit jet streams and its effects are predicted to last until June. The phenomena, along with its cold periods, call "La Nina", is also called the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Sixteen El Ninos have occurred since 1976. In nearly every one of those years, temperatures across Alaska have been higher than normal. "Though El Ninos are just one chunk of the pie" in determining outlooks for temperature and precipitation, said Thoman.